A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
